Strategic Shifts in the Global Metal Market: Tariffs, Mergers, and Supply Chain Realignments
Inside this edition:
1)Key Trade Shifts, Market Volatility & Strategic Moves
2) Key Updates in the Aluminum Industry
3) Key Updates in the Steel Industry
4) Key Updates in the Global Copper Market
5) Global Zinc Market Update
6) Global Nickel Market Update
7) Close Monitoring in July
8) Industry Conferences and Summits in July 2025
1) Key Trade Shifts, Market Volatility & Strategic Moves
Trade Policy Shifts & Tariffs
The doubling of U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50% has significantly disrupted international supply chains. Manufacturers in the U.S. now face steeper input costs, while allies like Canada have moved to adjust retaliatory tariffs, effective July 21, to defend their domestic industries. In the EU, surging scrap exports to the U.S. have raised concerns over raw material scarcity, prompting industry calls for export restrictions to protect green steel ambitions.
Corporate Strategy & Consolidation
The industry saw major restructuring, with Nippon Steel’s $14.9B acquisition of U.S. Steel signaling intensified global consolidation. Meanwhile, Cleveland-Cliffs canceled a $500M green steel project, redirecting capital in light of the tariff-driven market volatility—highlighting a shift toward short-term operational returns over long-term sustainability bets.
Critical Minerals & Supply Chains
Cobalt markets tightened further after the DR Congo extended its cobalt export ban, pushing prices up nearly 10%. Given the DRC’s dominant global share, the move could cause supply bottlenecks for EV battery producers and add inflationary pressure to the broader critical minerals landscape.
Regional Market Impact
Turkey’s steel industry remains under pressure as global trade realignments continue to ripple through supply chains. At the Istanbul Market Talks, stakeholders called for strategic recalibrations to navigate ongoing uncertainty.
2) Key Updates in the Aluminum Industry
June 2025 has underscored the aluminum sector’s strategic importance in both industrial policy and sustainability agendas. While protectionist measures have created short-term gains for domestic producers, they risk long-term market fragmentation and downstream disruption. A careful balance between capacity expansion, carbon mitigation, and trade alignment will be critical to maintaining industry resilience.
Trade Tensions & Policy Shifts
The U.S. decision to double tariffs on imported aluminum to 50% represents a major inflection point for the industry. While U.S.-based producers like Century Aluminum stand to benefit from increased domestic premiums, downstream manufacturers face rising costs and supply uncertainty. Packaging and consumer goods sectors are particularly affected, prompting a reassessment of material sourcing strategies. The policy has also reignited trade friction with global partners, including Canada and the EU, heightening regulatory risks.
Market Pricing & Inventory Pressure
Aluminum prices saw a 4.29% increase month-over-month, reaching approximately $2,590 per metric ton. This uptick is driven by constrained inventories, with LME stockpiles falling to a multi-year low of 321,800 tons. The tightening supply environment—exacerbated by logistical bottlenecks and the DRC’s cobalt export restrictions—signals potential further volatility if global demand accelerates.
Demand Growth & Sustainability Push
Forecasts suggest global aluminum demand will grow to 104.2 million tons in 2025, supported by applications in electric vehicles, renewable energy, and infrastructure. Simultaneously, the industry is doubling down on low-carbon production methods and recycling, aligning with global decarbonization targets. However, these efforts may be challenged by inconsistent policy environments and energy cost dynamics.
Capacity & Infrastructure Developments
The announcement of a $4 billion aluminum smelter in Oklahoma by Emirates Global Aluminum marks a historic investment—the first of its kind in the U.S. in over four decades. Yet, with the U.S. aluminum sector currently operating at just 53% of installed capacity, the industry faces ongoing headwinds in energy affordability and inter-sector competition for power.
Global Regional Dynamics
The Asia-Pacific market, particularly China, continues to drive consumption growth through aggressive urbanization and infrastructure spending. In contrast, European producers are increasingly burdened by scrap metal outflows and regulatory uncertainty, prompting calls for strategic export controls to preserve domestic supply.
3) Key Updates in the Steel Industry
Corporate Strategy & Consolidation
Nippon Steel Acquires U.S. Steel: Nippon Steel Corporation completed its $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel on June 18, marking a significant consolidation in the global steel industry. The deal includes provisions to maintain U.S. Steel’s headquarters in Pittsburgh and a “golden share” allowing the U.S. president to veto certain corporate decisions.
Thyssenkrupp’s Green Steel Commitment: Thyssenkrupp reaffirmed its commitment to constructing a €3 billion green steel plant in Duisburg, Germany, despite competitor ArcelorMittal withdrawing from a similar initiative. The company has called on the German government to improve conditions to ensure the project’s economic viability.
Market Trends & Outlook
Price Stabilization: After initial volatility due to tariff announcements, steel prices have shown signs of stabilization in early June. Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices range from $840 to $847 per ton, while Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) prices range from $1,057 to $1,100 per ton.
EU Consumption Decline: The European Steel Association (Eurofer) forecasts a 0.9% drop in EU steel consumption in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of contraction. The decline is attributed to trade disruptions and weakening demand in key sectors like construction and automotive
Regional Market Dynamics
China’s Iron Ore Imports Rise: Despite ongoing difficulties in the steel sector, China’s iron ore imports are projected to reach nearly 110 million metric tons in June, marking the highest level this year. The surge is attributed to declining iron ore prices and inventory restocking.
India’s Steel Production Growth: India has emerged as the only major economy to achieve consistent growth in steel production between 2019 and 2024, with a 33% increase. This trend is expected to continue, positioning India as a key player in the global steel industry.
4) Key Updates in the Global Copper Market
Price Trends & Market Volatility
Current Pricing: Copper prices have shown volatility, with recent figures around $4.80 per pound, reflecting a 0.60% decrease from the previous day. Over the past month, prices have dipped by 0.16% but remain 8.11% higher year-over-year.
LME Inventory Decline: The London Metal Exchange (LME) has reported a significant drop in copper inventories, leading to a surge in the cash premium over three-month futures to $345 per ton—the highest since 2021. This shift indicates a move from contango to backwardation, signaling tight immediate supply.
Supply Constraints & Smelting Challenges
Smelter Struggles: Copper smelters are facing difficulties due to a shortage of raw materials. Treatment and refining charges (TCRC), typically a revenue source for smelters, have turned negative, compelling smelters to pay miners for processing concentrates.
Mine Output Projections: The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a 2.3% increase in global mined copper output for 2025, reaching approximately 23.5 million metric tons. However, this growth may not suffice to meet the rising demand, especially given processing bottlenecks.
Demand Dynamics & Geopolitical Impacts
Global Demand Outlook: Copper demand is projected to grow by 2% in 2025, with Asia accounting for nearly 75% of global consumption. However, factors like U.S. tariffs are dampening international trade, potentially affecting demand growth.
Geopolitical Tensions: Events such as the escalation between Israel and Iran have introduced volatility into the copper market, with prices experiencing intraday fluctuations in response to geopolitical developments.
Technological Advancements & Recycling Initiatives
AI and Data Centers: The rise of artificial intelligence and the expansion of data centers are increasing copper demand, as these technologies require substantial electrical infrastructure. BHP anticipates that data centers could account for 6-7% of copper demand by 2050, up from less than 1% currently.
Recycling Efforts: To address supply challenges and environmental concerns, the industry is focusing on enhancing copper recycling. Secondary copper production, which consumes up to 85% less energy than primary production, is expected to grow, supported by regulatory frameworks promoting scrap recovery.
In summary, the copper market in June 2025 is characterized by tight supplies, fluctuating prices, and evolving demand influenced by technological advancements and geopolitical factors. Stakeholders are closely monitoring these developments to navigate the complex landscape effectively.
5) Global Zinc Market Update
The zinc market in June 2025 is characterized by a supply surplus and weak demand, leading to price pressures and challenges for smelters. While production is expected to increase, demand growth remains uncertain, particularly in key sectors like construction. Market participants should monitor developments in global economic activity, construction trends, and potential disruptions in supply chains that could influence the zinc market dynamics in the coming months.
Supply and Demand Dynamics
Supply Surplus: The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a global surplus of 151,000 metric tons of refined zinc metal in the first four months of 2025, despite a decrease in total reported inventories by 53,000 tons .
Production Increases: Global zinc production is expected to grow by 4.2% to 12.4 million tons in 2025, following a 2.8% decline in 2024. This growth is attributed to the ramp-up of existing operations and the commissioning of new projects .
Demand Challenges: Demand for zinc remains tepid, with global galvanized steel demand—the largest end-use application for zinc—expected to grow by only 2.1% in 2025, down from 3.4% in 2024. European construction sector demand has notably declined by 5% year-over-year .
Smelting and Processing
Smelter Profitability: Smelters are facing reduced profitability due to declining treatment and refining charges, which have dropped to approximately $150 per metric ton, down from $210 in 2024 .
Operational Pressures: In China, the world’s largest zinc producer, smelters are under pressure with refined zinc output decreasing at an accelerating rate, expected to be 3.4% lower than in 2023 .
6) Global Nickel Market Update
The nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied in the short to medium term, with prices likely to stay subdued. While long-term demand prospects, particularly from the EV sector, remain positive, the current oversupply and demand challenges present significant headwinds for the industry. Stakeholders will need to navigate these challenges carefully, balancing production levels with market demand to restore equilibrium.
Price Trends
Current Pricing: Nickel prices have continued their downward trajectory, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price falling to approximately $14,796 per metric ton on June 24, 2025. This marks a 13.81% decrease compared to the same period last year
Price Forecast: Analysts anticipate that nickel prices will remain under pressure in the near term, with projections suggesting prices may average around $15,700 per metric ton in 2025 .
Supply and Demand Dynamics
Supply Surplus: The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) forecasts a global nickel market surplus of 198,000 metric tons for 2025, with primary nickel production expected to reach 3.735 million metric tons, outpacing the projected usage of 3.537 million metric tons .
Production Increases: Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel producer, continues to expand its output, accounting for approximately 63% of global production. However, the Indonesian government is considering reducing mining quotas to stabilize prices amid the oversupply .
Demand Challenges: Demand for nickel, particularly from the EV battery sector, has weakened due to a shift towards lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which do not require nickel. This has led to a downward revision of nickel demand forecasts for the battery sector.
Industry Impact
Operational Struggles: The prolonged period of low nickel prices has adversely affected producers, with some operations becoming unprofitable. For instance, BHP Group announced the suspension of its Australian nickel operations due to market conditions .
Smelter Challenges: Smelters, especially in Indonesia, are facing tight margins and may be compelled to reduce or halt production if prices remain depressed .
7) Close Monitoring in July
The global metal industry enters July 2025 amid major shifts. U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum (50%) are reshaping trade flows, driving up demand for EU scrap and prompting calls for export controls. Meanwhile, the DRC’s cobalt export ban has pushed prices up 10%, raising EV battery supply concerns.
Steel prices have stabilized post-tariffs, while aluminum remains volatile. Copper markets are tight, with falling inventories triggering cash premium spikes. On the sustainability front, green steel investments and the EU’s push for a circular scrap economy reflect broader decarbonization efforts, though energy and cost pressures persist. Stakeholders should watch these evolving dynamics closely.
In summary, July 2025 presents a pivotal period for the metal industry, with significant developments in trade policies, market dynamics, and sustainability initiatives. Stakeholders should closely monitor these trends to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.
8) Industry Conferences and Summits in July 2025
LightMAT 2025
- Dates: July 7–10
- Location: Montréal, Canada
- Focus: Lightweight materials including aluminum and magnesium
- Details: This event brings together experts in lightweight materials to discuss innovations in material science and engineering.
Aluminium China 2025
- Dates: July 9–11
- Location: Shanghai, China
- Focus: Aluminum, copper, and magnesium industries
- Details: Celebrating its 20th edition, this exhibition will host over 600 exhibitors and is expected to attract more than 30,000 global visitors
Copper China 2025
- Dates: July 9–11
- Location: Shanghai, China
- Focus: Copper industry
- Details: Held concurrently with Aluminium China, this event focuses on the copper industry, providing a platform for industry professionals to explore innovations and collaborations
7th Australasian Aluminium Extrusion Conference (AAEC25)
- Dates: July 14–17
- Location: Brisbane, Australia
- Focus: Aluminum extrusion technologies
- Details: This conference gathers professionals to discuss advancements in aluminum extrusion processes and applications.
Egypt Mining Forum 2025
- Dates: July 15–16
- Location: Cairo, Egypt
- Focus: Mining sector developments
- Details: The forum will address developments in Egypt’s mining sector, including regulatory frameworks and investment opportunities.
INAWELDING 2025
- Details: This trade show focuses on welding technologies and equipment, attracting professionals from the metalworking industry
- Dates: July 29–31
- Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
- Focus: Welding technologies and equipment